Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Prediction Audit: Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokół Kolb. Sokół Kolb.
May 22, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice

AI correctly predicted the Sokół Kolb. win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sokół Kolb. Sokół Kolb. ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Sokół Kolb. +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokół Kolb. 41.8% 37.1% +4.7 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 25.7% -0.0 pp Aligned
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.6% 37.2% -4.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sokół Kolb. win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Sokół Kolb. win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.6%
    • xG · Sokół Kolb. 1.45 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Kolb. 2.40 · Draw 3.46 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 37.1% · Draw 25.7% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Kolb. 2.40 · Draw 3.46 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 37.1% · Draw 25.7% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sokół Kolb. win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5265717

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sokół Kolb. win · Sokół Kolb. 2–0 Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sokół Kolb. 1.45 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 48.7% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +9.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions