Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wisłoka Dębica vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Prediction Audit: Wisłoka Dębica vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisłoka Dębica Wisłoka Dębica
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Wisłoka Dębica at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wisłoka Dębica Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Wisłoka Dębica +2.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wisłoka Dębica 41.8% 39.6% +2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.2% -0.5 pp Aligned
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.6% 34.2% -1.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.6%
    • xG · Wisłoka Dębica 1.45 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 2.25 · Draw 3.40 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 39.6% · Draw 26.2% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 2.25 · Draw 3.40 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 39.6% · Draw 26.2% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 08:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3401684

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Wisłoka Dębica 2–2 Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wisłoka Dębica vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Wisłoka Dębica 1.45 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.7% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +27.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.0% · No 51.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Wisłoka Dębica Next Match Prediction Track Wiślanie Jaśkowice Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions