Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wisła Kraków II vs Cracovia Kraków II

Prediction Audit: Wisła Kraków II vs Cracovia Kraków II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisła Kraków II Wisła Kraków II
May 13, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Cracovia Kraków II Cracovia Kraków II

AI correctly predicted the Wisła Kraków II win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wisła Kraków II Wisła Kraków II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wisła Kraków II 41.8% 43.5% -1.7 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 20.4% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Cracovia Kraków II 32.6% 36.1% -3.6 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 25.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.4%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wisła Kraków II win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wisła Kraków II more conservatively (36.5% vs model 41.8%, 5.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wisła Kraków II win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wisła Kraków II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Cracovia Kraków II 32.6%
    • xG · Wisła Kraków II 1.45 — Cracovia Kraków II 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wisła Kraków II 1.96 · Draw 4.19 · Cracovia Kraków II 2.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisła Kraków II 43.5% · Draw 20.4% · Cracovia Kraków II 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wisła Kraków II 1.96 · Draw 4.19 · Cracovia Kraków II 2.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisła Kraków II 43.5% · Draw 20.4% · Cracovia Kraków II 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wisła Kraków II win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3334521

Closing Odds 4.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisła Kraków II win · Wisła Kraków II 3–1 Cracovia Kraków II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wisła Kraków II vs Cracovia Kraków II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Wisła Kraków II 1.45 — Cracovia Kraków II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 43.0% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +9.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions