Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Naprzód

Prediction Audit: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Naprzód Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice
May 13, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Naprzód Naprzód

AI correctly predicted the Wiślanie Jaśkowice win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Wiślanie Jaśkowice win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.45 — Naprzód 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Wiślanie Jaśkowice win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1676196

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wiślanie Jaśkowice win · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–0 Naprzód
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Naprzód
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.45 — Naprzód 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions