Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Świdniczanka Świdnik

Prediction Audit: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Świdniczanka Świdnik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska
May 08, 2026 - 17:57
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Świdniczanka Świdnik Świdniczanka Świdnik

AI correctly predicted the Podlasie Biała Podlaska win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Podlasie Biała Podlaska higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska -16.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 41.8% 58.7% -16.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
Świdniczanka Świdnik 32.6% 19.9% +12.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Podlasie Biała Podlaska's win probability at 58.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Podlasie Biała Podlaska than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Podlasie Biała Podlaska higher (58.7% vs model 41.8%, 16.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Świdniczanka Świdnik 32.6%
    • xG · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.45 — Świdniczanka Świdnik 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.53 · Draw 4.20 · Świdniczanka Świdnik 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 58.7% · Draw 21.4% · Świdniczanka Świdnik 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.53 · Draw 4.20 · Świdniczanka Świdnik 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 58.7% · Draw 21.4% · Świdniczanka Świdnik 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 04:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2570216

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3–0 Świdniczanka Świdnik
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Świdniczanka Świdnik
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.45 — Świdniczanka Świdnik 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.9% · Over 2.5 65.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions