Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Avia Świdnik vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction Audit: Avia Świdnik vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Avia Świdnik Avia Świdnik
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Siarka Tarnobrzeg

AI correctly predicted the Avia Świdnik win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Avia Świdnik Avia Świdnik ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Avia Świdnik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Avia Świdnik -25.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Avia Świdnik 41.8% 67.5% -25.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 19.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32.6% 12.9% +19.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Avia Świdnik's win probability at 67.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 25.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Avia Świdnik win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Avia Świdnik higher (67.6% vs model 41.8%, 25.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Avia Świdnik win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32.6%
    • xG · Avia Świdnik 1.45 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:52 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 1.33 · Draw 4.60 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 6.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 67.5% · Draw 19.5% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12.9%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 1.33 · Draw 4.60 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 6.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 67.5% · Draw 19.5% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12.9%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Avia Świdnik win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 11:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2508724

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Avia Świdnik win · Avia Świdnik 1–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Avia Świdnik vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Avia Świdnik 1.45 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 75.9% · No 24.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.9% · No 24.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Avia Świdnik Next Match Prediction Track Siarka Tarnobrzeg Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions