Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Warta Gorzów vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Prediction Audit: Warta Gorzów vs Pawłowice Śląskie Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów
May 30, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Pawłowice Śląskie Pawłowice Śląskie

AI correctly predicted the Warta Gorzów win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Warta Gorzów higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Warta Gorzów -41.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Warta Gorzów 41.8% 82.8% -41.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 10.8% +14.8 pp Model Edge
Pawłowice Śląskie 32.6% 6.4% +26.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Warta Gorzów's win probability at 82.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 41.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Warta Gorzów win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Warta Gorzów higher (82.8% vs model 41.8%, 41.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Warta Gorzów win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Pawłowice Śląskie 32.6%
    • xG · Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Pawłowice Śląskie 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.11 · Draw 8.48 · Pawłowice Śląskie 14.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 82.8% · Draw 10.8% · Pawłowice Śląskie 6.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.11 · Draw 8.48 · Pawłowice Śląskie 14.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 82.8% · Draw 10.8% · Pawłowice Śląskie 6.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Warta Gorzów win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (41 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5476644

Closing Odds 1.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Warta Gorzów win · Warta Gorzów 2–0 Pawłowice Śląskie
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Warta Gorzów; market prices Warta Gorzów instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Warta Gorzów 1.45 xG vs Pawłowice Śląskie 1.25 → Warta Gorzów 41.8%
  • Market: Warta Gorzów ~82.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS No (Yes 39.6% · No 60.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions