Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin

Prediction Audit: Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Starowice Dolne Starowice Dolne
May 23, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Carina Gubin Carina Gubin

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Starowice Dolne at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Starowice Dolne Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Carina Gubin higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Carina Gubin -22.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Starowice Dolne 41.8% 22.1% +19.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.0% +2.7 pp Aligned
Carina Gubin 32.6% 54.8% -22.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Carina Gubin's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 22.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Starowice Dolne; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Starowice Dolne by 22.3 percentage points (64.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Starowice Dolne 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Carina Gubin 32.6%
    • xG · Starowice Dolne 1.45 — Carina Gubin 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Starowice Dolne 4.06 · Draw 3.91 · Carina Gubin 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Starowice Dolne 22.1% · Draw 23.0% · Carina Gubin 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Starowice Dolne 4.06 · Draw 3.91 · Carina Gubin 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Starowice Dolne 22.1% · Draw 23.0% · Carina Gubin 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1471871

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Starowice Dolne 0–0 Carina Gubin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Starowice Dolne 1.45 — Carina Gubin 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 38.8% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions