Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II

Prediction Audit: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zagłębie Lubin II Zagłębie Lubin II
May 22, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II

The model missed the final outcome (Miedź Legnica II win 1–3).

The model had projected Zagłębie Lubin II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Zagłębie Lubin II Miedź Legnica II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Zagłębie Lubin II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zagłębie Lubin II -6.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zagłębie Lubin II 41.8% 47.9% -6.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.7% +2.0 pp Aligned
Miedź Legnica II 32.6% 28.4% +4.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Zagłębie Lubin II's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Miedź Legnica II win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Zagłębie Lubin II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Zagłębie Lubin II; match finished Miedź Legnica II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zagłębie Lubin II by 6.1 percentage points (47.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Miedź Legnica II 32.6%
    • xG · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.85 · Draw 3.74 · Miedź Legnica II 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 47.9% · Draw 23.7% · Miedź Legnica II 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.85 · Draw 3.74 · Miedź Legnica II 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 47.9% · Draw 23.7% · Miedź Legnica II 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Miedź Legnica II win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 23:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2543354

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Miedź Legnica II win · Zagłębie Lubin II 1–3 Miedź Legnica II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Zagłębie Lubin II 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.9% · Implied: 65.5% · Probability edge: +8.4 pts · Est. EV: +13.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.9% · No 35.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 3 Matches Track Zagłębie Lubin II Next Match Prediction Track Miedź Legnica II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions