Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Prediction Audit: Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Zagłębie Lubin II Zagłębie Lubin II

The model missed the final outcome (Zagłębie Lubin II win 1–2).

The model had projected Warta Gorzów at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Warta Gorzów Zagłębie Lubin II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Zagłębie Lubin II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zagłębie Lubin II -8.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Warta Gorzów 41.8% 33.8% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.6% +0.1 pp Aligned
Zagłębie Lubin II 32.6% 40.6% -8.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Zagłębie Lubin II's win probability at 40.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zagłębie Lubin II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Zagłębie Lubin II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Warta Gorzów; match finished Zagłębie Lubin II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Warta Gorzów by 8.1 percentage points (49.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Zagłębie Lubin II 32.6%
    • xG · Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Zagłębie Lubin II 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 2.63 · Draw 3.48 · Zagłębie Lubin II 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 33.8% · Draw 25.6% · Zagłębie Lubin II 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 2.63 · Draw 3.48 · Zagłębie Lubin II 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 33.8% · Draw 25.6% · Zagłębie Lubin II 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zagłębie Lubin II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 09:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2593948

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zagłębie Lubin II win · Warta Gorzów 1–2 Zagłębie Lubin II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Zagłębie Lubin II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.7% · Implied: 61.5% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions