Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Pawłowice Śląskie vs Górnik Polkowice

Prediction Audit: Pawłowice Śląskie vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pawłowice Śląskie Pawłowice Śląskie
May 13, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
7 1.25
xG Accuracy: 14%
Górnik Polkowice Górnik Polkowice

The model missed the final outcome (Górnik Polkowice win 0–7).

The model had projected Pawłowice Śląskie at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pawłowice Śląskie Górnik Polkowice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 0-7 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Górnik Polkowice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Górnik Polkowice -41.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pawłowice Śląskie 41.8% 9.6% +32.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 16.2% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Górnik Polkowice 32.6% 74.2% -41.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Górnik Polkowice's win probability at 74.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 41.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Górnik Polkowice win 0–7.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Pawłowice Śląskie; match finished Górnik Polkowice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pawłowice Śląskie by 41.6 percentage points (83.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pawłowice Śląskie 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Górnik Polkowice 32.6%
    • xG · Pawłowice Śląskie 1.45 — Górnik Polkowice 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pawłowice Śląskie 9.16 · Draw 5.45 · Górnik Polkowice 1.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Pawłowice Śląskie 9.6% · Draw 16.2% · Górnik Polkowice 74.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pawłowice Śląskie 9.16 · Draw 5.45 · Górnik Polkowice 1.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Pawłowice Śląskie 9.6% · Draw 16.2% · Górnik Polkowice 74.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Górnik Polkowice win · 0–7
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (42 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 09:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2724090

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Górnik Polkowice win · Pawłowice Śląskie 0–7 Górnik Polkowice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Pawłowice Śląskie; market prices Górnik Polkowice instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Pawłowice Śląskie 1.45 xG vs Górnik Polkowice 1.25 → Pawłowice Śląskie 41.8%
  • Market: Górnik Polkowice ~9.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS No (Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions