Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Polonia Nysa vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Prediction Audit: Polonia Nysa vs Lechia Zielona Góra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Polonia Nysa Polonia Nysa
May 13, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Lechia Zielona Góra Lechia Zielona Góra

The model missed the final outcome (Lechia Zielona Góra win 0–1).

The model had projected Polonia Nysa at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Polonia Nysa Lechia Zielona Góra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Lechia Zielona Góra higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lechia Zielona Góra -19.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Polonia Nysa 41.8% 23.1% +18.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.0% +0.6 pp Aligned
Lechia Zielona Góra 32.6% 51.8% -19.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Lechia Zielona Góra's win probability at 51.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lechia Zielona Góra win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Lechia Zielona Góra than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Polonia Nysa; match finished Lechia Zielona Góra

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Polonia Nysa by 19.3 percentage points (61.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Polonia Nysa 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lechia Zielona Góra 32.6%
    • xG · Polonia Nysa 1.45 — Lechia Zielona Góra 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Nysa 3.83 · Draw 3.54 · Lechia Zielona Góra 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Nysa 23.1% · Draw 25.0% · Lechia Zielona Góra 51.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Nysa 3.83 · Draw 3.54 · Lechia Zielona Góra 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Nysa 23.1% · Draw 25.0% · Lechia Zielona Góra 51.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lechia Zielona Góra win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 08:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3033732

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lechia Zielona Góra win · Polonia Nysa 0–1 Lechia Zielona Góra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Polonia Nysa vs Lechia Zielona Góra
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Polonia Nysa 1.45 — Lechia Zielona Góra 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 62.9% · Implied: 53.9% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +10.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.9% · No 37.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions