Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Górnik Zabrze II vs Miedź Legnica II

Prediction Audit: Górnik Zabrze II vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Zabrze II Górnik Zabrze II
May 13, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II

The model missed the final outcome (Miedź Legnica II win 0–1).

The model had projected Górnik Zabrze II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Górnik Zabrze II Miedź Legnica II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Górnik Zabrze II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Górnik Zabrze II -11.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Górnik Zabrze II 41.8% 52.9% -11.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.9% +2.8 pp Aligned
Miedź Legnica II 32.6% 24.3% +8.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Górnik Zabrze II's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Miedź Legnica II win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Górnik Zabrze II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Górnik Zabrze II by 11.1 percentage points (52.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Górnik Zabrze II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Miedź Legnica II 32.6%
    • xG · Górnik Zabrze II 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Zabrze II 1.68 · Draw 3.88 · Miedź Legnica II 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Zabrze II 52.9% · Draw 22.9% · Miedź Legnica II 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Zabrze II 1.68 · Draw 3.88 · Miedź Legnica II 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Zabrze II 52.9% · Draw 22.9% · Miedź Legnica II 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Miedź Legnica II win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 22:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1770736

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Miedź Legnica II win · Górnik Zabrze II 0–1 Miedź Legnica II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Górnik Zabrze II vs Miedź Legnica II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Górnik Zabrze II 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.4% · No 34.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.4% · No 34.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions