Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Warta Gorzów vs Polonia Nysa

Prediction Audit: Warta Gorzów vs Polonia Nysa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Polonia Nysa Polonia Nysa

AI correctly predicted the Warta Gorzów win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Polonia Nysa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Polonia Nysa +6.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Warta Gorzów 41.8% 47.2% -5.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.3% -0.6 pp Aligned
Polonia Nysa 32.6% 26.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Polonia Nysa's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.5%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Warta Gorzów win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Polonia Nysa.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Warta Gorzów more conservatively (35.7% vs model 41.8%, 6.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Warta Gorzów win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Polonia Nysa 32.6%
    • xG · Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Polonia Nysa 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.88 · Draw 3.38 · Polonia Nysa 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 47.2% · Draw 26.3% · Polonia Nysa 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.88 · Draw 3.38 · Polonia Nysa 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 47.2% · Draw 26.3% · Polonia Nysa 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Warta Gorzów win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 11:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2606706

Closing Odds 3.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Warta Gorzów win · Warta Gorzów 1–0 Polonia Nysa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Warta Gorzów vs Polonia Nysa
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Polonia Nysa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions