Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Ślęza Wrocław vs Miedź Legnica II

Prediction Audit: Ślęza Wrocław vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ślęza Wrocław Ślęza Wrocław
May 08, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II

AI correctly predicted the Ślęza Wrocław win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ślęza Wrocław Ślęza Wrocław ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ślęza Wrocław considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ślęza Wrocław +6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ślęza Wrocław 41.8% 35.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 27.4% -1.7 pp Aligned
Miedź Legnica II 32.6% 37.5% -4.9 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Ślęza Wrocław's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.1%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ślęza Wrocław win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ślęza Wrocław.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ślęza Wrocław more conservatively (35.2% vs model 41.8%, 6.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ślęza Wrocław win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Miedź Legnica II 32.6%
    • xG · Ślęza Wrocław 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ślęza Wrocław 2.56 · Draw 3.29 · Miedź Legnica II 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 35.1% · Draw 27.4% · Miedź Legnica II 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ślęza Wrocław 2.56 · Draw 3.29 · Miedź Legnica II 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 35.1% · Draw 27.4% · Miedź Legnica II 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ślęza Wrocław win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2558151

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ślęza Wrocław win · Ślęza Wrocław 3–2 Miedź Legnica II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Ślęza Wrocław vs Miedź Legnica II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ślęza Wrocław 1.45 — Miedź Legnica II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.7% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +17.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 3 Matches Track Ślęza Wrocław Next Match Prediction Track Miedź Legnica II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions