Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze II

Prediction Audit: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SKRA Częstochowa SKRA Częstochowa
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Górnik Zabrze II Górnik Zabrze II

The model missed the final outcome (Górnik Zabrze II win 1–2).

The model had projected SKRA Częstochowa at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SKRA Częstochowa Górnik Zabrze II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: SKRA Częstochowa +4.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SKRA Częstochowa 41.8% 37.5% +4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.2% -0.6 pp Aligned
Górnik Zabrze II 32.6% 36.3% -3.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Górnik Zabrze II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SKRA Częstochowa; match finished Górnik Zabrze II

Market lesson

The full-time result was Górnik Zabrze II win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SKRA Częstochowa 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Górnik Zabrze II 32.6%
    • xG · SKRA Częstochowa 1.45 — Górnik Zabrze II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SKRA Częstochowa 2.37 · Draw 3.39 · Górnik Zabrze II 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · SKRA Częstochowa 37.5% · Draw 26.2% · Górnik Zabrze II 36.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SKRA Częstochowa 2.37 · Draw 3.39 · Górnik Zabrze II 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · SKRA Częstochowa 37.5% · Draw 26.2% · Górnik Zabrze II 36.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Górnik Zabrze II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 22:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1770644

Closing Odds 2.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Górnik Zabrze II win · SKRA Częstochowa 1–2 Górnik Zabrze II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SKRA Częstochowa 1.45 — Górnik Zabrze II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 29.4% · Over 2.5 70.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 73.9% · No 26.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.9% · No 26.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 21 10 3 73
2 Górnik Polkowice 34 20 7 7 67
3 Sparta Katowice 34 18 8 8 62
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 17 8 9 59
5 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 17 6 11 57
6 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 15 9 10 54
7 Kluczbork 34 15 8 12 52
8 Warta Gorzów 34 15 8 12 52
9 Górnik Zabrze II 34 15 6 13 51
10 Ślęza Wrocław 34 14 8 13 49
11 Słowianin 34 13 9 12 48
12 Carina Gubin 34 12 11 11 47
13 Miedź Legnica II 34 13 7 14 46
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 12 9 13 45
15 Polonia Nysa 34 9 10 15 37
16 Starowice Dolne 34 7 6 21 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 5 5 25 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 2 1 31 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 34 77 17 +60 73
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 34 77 61 +16 57
3 Górnik Zabrze II 34 73 44 +29 51
4 SKRA Częstochowa 34 68 56 +12 59
5 Kluczbork 34 67 43 +24 52
6 Górnik Polkowice 34 64 42 +22 67
7 Miedź Legnica II 34 63 58 +5 46
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34 57 56 +1 45
9 Warta Gorzów 34 54 47 +7 52
10 Sparta Katowice 34 53 34 +19 62
11 Polonia Nysa 34 51 58 -7 37
12 Carina Gubin 34 50 51 -1 47
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 34 49 46 +3 54
14 Ślęza Wrocław 34 49 57 -8 49
15 Słowianin 34 48 49 -1 48
16 Starowice Dolne 34 33 81 -48 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 34 28 77 -49 20
18 Stal Jasień 34 21 105 -84 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions