Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Elana Toruń vs Tłuchowia

Prediction Audit: Elana Toruń vs Tłuchowia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Elana Toruń Elana Toruń
May 30, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Tłuchowia Tłuchowia

The model missed the final outcome (Tłuchowia win 2–5).

The model had projected Elana Toruń at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Elana Toruń Tłuchowia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tłuchowia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tłuchowia -30.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Elana Toruń 41.8% 17.0% +24.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 19.6% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Tłuchowia 32.6% 63.5% -30.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tłuchowia's win probability at 63.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tłuchowia win 2–5.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Elana Toruń by 30.9 percentage points (72.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Elana Toruń 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tłuchowia 32.6%
    • xG · Elana Toruń 1.45 — Tłuchowia 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Elana Toruń 5.23 · Draw 4.54 · Tłuchowia 1.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Elana Toruń 17.0% · Draw 19.6% · Tłuchowia 63.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Elana Toruń 5.23 · Draw 4.54 · Tłuchowia 1.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Elana Toruń 17.0% · Draw 19.6% · Tłuchowia 63.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tłuchowia win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 21:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3005091

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tłuchowia win · Elana Toruń 2–5 Tłuchowia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Elana Toruń; market prices Tłuchowia instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Elana Toruń 1.45 xG vs Tłuchowia 1.25 → Elana Toruń 41.8%
  • Market: Tłuchowia ~17.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS No (Yes 44.1% · No 55.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions