Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński

Prediction Audit: Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tłuchowia Tłuchowia
May 22, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Stargard Szczeciński Stargard Szczeciński

The model missed the final outcome (Stargard Szczeciński win 1–4).

The model had projected Tłuchowia at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tłuchowia Stargard Szczeciński ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stargard Szczeciński higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stargard Szczeciński -25.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tłuchowia 41.8% 21.0% +20.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 21.3% +4.4 pp Aligned
Stargard Szczeciński 32.6% 57.7% -25.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Stargard Szczeciński's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 25.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Stargard Szczeciński win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tłuchowia by 25.1 percentage points (66.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tłuchowia 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Stargard Szczeciński 32.6%
    • xG · Tłuchowia 1.45 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tłuchowia 4.23 · Draw 4.17 · Stargard Szczeciński 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Tłuchowia 21.0% · Draw 21.3% · Stargard Szczeciński 57.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tłuchowia 4.23 · Draw 4.17 · Stargard Szczeciński 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Tłuchowia 21.0% · Draw 21.3% · Stargard Szczeciński 57.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stargard Szczeciński win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3050521

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stargard Szczeciński win · Tłuchowia 1–4 Stargard Szczeciński
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Tłuchowia 1.45 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.5% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +14.0 pts · Est. EV: +31.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.5% · No 55.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Tłuchowia Next Match Prediction Track Stargard Szczeciński Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Tłuchowia & Stargard Szczeciński!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions