Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Stargard Szczeciński

Prediction Audit: Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
May 13, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Stargard Szczeciński Stargard Szczeciński

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce +10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 41.8% 31.0% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 28.7% -3.0 pp Aligned
Stargard Szczeciński 32.6% 40.4% -7.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce by 10.8 percentage points (31.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Stargard Szczeciński 32.6%
    • xG · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1.45 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2.87 · Draw 3.10 · Stargard Szczeciński 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 31.0% · Draw 28.7% · Stargard Szczeciński 40.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2.87 · Draw 3.10 · Stargard Szczeciński 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 31.0% · Draw 28.7% · Stargard Szczeciński 40.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3053584

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 0–0 Stargard Szczeciński
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Stargard Szczeciński
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1.45 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 48.9% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +17.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.1% · No 48.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions