Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Tłuchowia vs Lech Poznań II

Prediction Audit: Tłuchowia vs Lech Poznań II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tłuchowia Tłuchowia
May 13, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Lech Poznań II Lech Poznań II

AI correctly predicted the Tłuchowia win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tłuchowia Tłuchowia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Lech Poznań II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lech Poznań II -22.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tłuchowia 41.8% 22.1% +19.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 22.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Lech Poznań II 32.6% 55.2% -22.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Lech Poznań II's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tłuchowia win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tłuchowia higher (64.4% vs model 41.8%, 22.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tłuchowia win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tłuchowia 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lech Poznań II 32.6%
    • xG · Tłuchowia 1.45 — Lech Poznań II 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tłuchowia 4.02 · Draw 3.92 · Lech Poznań II 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Tłuchowia 22.1% · Draw 22.7% · Lech Poznań II 55.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tłuchowia 4.02 · Draw 3.92 · Lech Poznań II 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Tłuchowia 22.1% · Draw 22.7% · Lech Poznań II 55.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tłuchowia win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7710839

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Tłuchowia win · Tłuchowia 3–1 Lech Poznań II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Tłuchowia vs Lech Poznań II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Tłuchowia 1.45 — Lech Poznań II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 52.8% · Implied: 41.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +26.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.2% · No 52.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions