Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Pogoń Szczecin II vs Elana Toruń

Prediction Audit: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Elana Toruń Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II
May 13, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Elana Toruń Elana Toruń

AI correctly predicted the Pogoń Szczecin II win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pogoń Szczecin II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pogoń Szczecin II -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń Szczecin II 41.8% 52.2% -10.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
Elana Toruń 32.6% 23.1% +9.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Pogoń Szczecin II's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pogoń Szczecin II win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Pogoń Szczecin II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pogoń Szczecin II higher (52.2% vs model 41.8%, 10.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pogoń Szczecin II win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Elana Toruń 32.6%
    • xG · Pogoń Szczecin II 1.45 — Elana Toruń 1.25
  2. May 13, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin II 1.70 · Draw 3.59 · Elana Toruń 3.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 52.2% · Draw 24.7% · Elana Toruń 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 13, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin II 1.70 · Draw 3.59 · Elana Toruń 3.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 52.2% · Draw 24.7% · Elana Toruń 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pogoń Szczecin II win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 22:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9312406

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Pogoń Szczecin II win · Pogoń Szczecin II 4–0 Elana Toruń
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Elana Toruń
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Szczecin II 1.45 — Elana Toruń 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 65.1% · Implied: 57.1% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.3% · No 38.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions