Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction Audit: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Kluczevia Stargard Kluczevia Stargard

AI correctly predicted the Pogoń Szczecin II win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Pogoń Szczecin II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pogoń Szczecin II +7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń Szczecin II 41.8% 34.3% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.7 pp Aligned
Kluczevia Stargard 32.6% 39.3% -6.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Pogoń Szczecin II's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.3%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pogoń Szczecin II win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Pogoń Szczecin II.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pogoń Szczecin II more conservatively (34.3% vs model 41.8%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pogoń Szczecin II win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Kluczevia Stargard 32.6%
    • xG · Pogoń Szczecin II 1.45 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin II 2.59 · Draw 3.37 · Kluczevia Stargard 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 34.3% · Draw 26.4% · Kluczevia Stargard 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin II 2.59 · Draw 3.37 · Kluczevia Stargard 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin II 34.3% · Draw 26.4% · Kluczevia Stargard 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pogoń Szczecin II win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3054104

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pogoń Szczecin II win · Pogoń Szczecin II 2–1 Kluczevia Stargard
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Szczecin II 1.45 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.1% · Implied: 61.0% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +2.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions