1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Draw
- Model probability
- —
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- —
No Value Edge
Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
Consensus EV
—
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
—
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
—
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Model snapshot generated
Risk factors
- ✗Market moved against Flota Świnoujście3.4 → 3.75 · ↑ +10.3%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Flota Świnoujście · ↑ +10.3%
Breadth
5/9
Books moving same direction
Betano
↑ +17.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.3%
Unibet
↑ +8.5%
1xBet
↑ +8.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.1%
Move Score
47 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseMarket drift
StatusDrift
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Market drift on Flota Świnoujście — compare with model probabilities.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 57.7%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 77.8%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 77.8%
BTTS No 22.2%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 11.2%
- Market probability (1-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 11.2%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 1-2 8.1%
- 1-0 7.7%
- 0-1 7.2%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 3.75
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions
