Prediction Audit: Wisła Płock II vs Bełchatów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisła Płock II

May 30, 2026 - 15:00

4 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Bełchatów

AI correctly predicted the Wisła Płock II win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Wisła Płock II Wisła Płock II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Wisła Płock II win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 30, 2026 · 19:49 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Wisła Płock II 1.45 — Bełchatów 1.25
May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wisła Płock II win · 4–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 17:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3196772

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wisła Płock II win · Wisła Płock II 4–1 Bełchatów

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Wisła Płock II vs Bełchatów
Kickoff: 2026-05-30 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Wisła Płock II 1.45 — Bełchatów 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 66.0% · Implied: 62.9% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 66.6% · No 33.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	34	27	3	4	84
2	Łomża	34	22	5	7	71
3	Warta Sieradz	34	21	8	5	71
4	Wigry Suwałki	34	20	5	9	65
5	Troszyn	34	17	6	11	57
6	Wisła Płock II	34	16	8	10	56
7	Widzew II	34	17	3	14	54
8	Jagiellonia II	34	14	7	13	49
9	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	34	13	8	13	47
10	Ząbkovia Ząbki	34	13	5	16	44
11	Swit	34	12	5	17	41
12	Mławianka Mława	34	11	7	16	40
13	Olimpia Elbląg	34	10	8	16	38
14	Wikielec	34	10	7	17	37
15	Broń Radom	34	9	9	16	36
16	Bełchatów	34	9	7	18	34
17	Wasilków	34	7	4	23	25
18	Znicz Biała Piska	34	4	3	27	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	34	82	29	+53	84
2	Łomża	34	77	31	+46	71
3	Troszyn	34	75	47	+28	57
4	Ząbkovia Ząbki	34	72	64	+8	44
5	Widzew II	34	70	64	+6	54
6	Warta Sieradz	34	64	34	+30	71
7	Wigry Suwałki	34	64	43	+21	65
8	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	34	64	55	+9	47
9	Wisła Płock II	34	56	51	+5	56
10	Mławianka Mława	34	55	59	-4	40
11	Swit	34	51	66	-15	41
12	Bełchatów	34	50	76	-26	34
13	Jagiellonia II	34	46	45	+1	49
14	Olimpia Elbląg	34	45	61	-16	38
15	Wikielec	34	40	54	-14	37
16	Broń Radom	34	40	57	-17	36
17	Wasilków	34	40	79	-39	25
18	Znicz Biała Piska	34	27	103	-76	15