Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Opava vs Příbram

Prediction Audit: Opava vs Příbram Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Opava Opava
May 23, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Příbram Příbram

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Opava at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Opava Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Opava higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Opava -8.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Opava 41.8% 50.6% -8.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.5% +1.2 pp Aligned
Příbram 32.6% 24.9% +7.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Opava's win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Opava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Opava; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Opava by 8.8 percentage points (50.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Opava 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Příbram 32.6%
    • xG · Opava 1.45 — Příbram 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Opava 1.79 · Draw 3.70 · Příbram 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Opava 50.6% · Draw 24.5% · Příbram 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Opava 1.79 · Draw 3.70 · Příbram 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Opava 50.6% · Draw 24.5% · Příbram 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 08:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3655300

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Opava 0–0 Příbram
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Opava vs Příbram
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Opava 1.45 — Příbram 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 60.9% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +24.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.7% · No 59.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25