Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Paderborn II vs SV Rodinghausen

Prediction Audit: Paderborn II vs SV Rodinghausen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Paderborn II Paderborn II
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
SV Rodinghausen SV Rodinghausen

AI correctly predicted the Paderborn II win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paderborn II Paderborn II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Paderborn II -2.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Paderborn II 41.8% 44.4% -2.6 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 25.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
SV Rodinghausen 32.6% 30.2% +2.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Paderborn II win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Paderborn II win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Paderborn II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · SV Rodinghausen 32.6%
    • xG · Paderborn II 1.45 — SV Rodinghausen 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 2.00 · Draw 3.50 · SV Rodinghausen 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 44.4% · Draw 25.4% · SV Rodinghausen 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 2.00 · Draw 3.50 · SV Rodinghausen 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 44.4% · Draw 25.4% · SV Rodinghausen 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Paderborn II win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 86/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1761924

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paderborn II win · Paderborn II 2–0 SV Rodinghausen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Paderborn II vs SV Rodinghausen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Paderborn II 1.45 — SV Rodinghausen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 53.5% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +31.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Regionalliga - West Matches Track Paderborn II Next Match Prediction Track SV Rodinghausen Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Paderborn II & SV Rodinghausen!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fortuna Köln 34 20 10 4 70
2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 19 9 6 66
3 Schalke 04 II 34 18 7 9 61
4 FC Gutersloh 34 16 11 7 59
5 Borussia Dortmund II 34 16 10 8 58
6 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 17 7 10 58
7 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 14 13 8 54
8 Paderborn II 34 12 10 12 46
9 Bonner SC 34 12 10 12 46
10 Köln II 34 13 6 15 45
11 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 11 12 11 45
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 11 7 16 40
13 FC Bocholt 34 10 9 15 39
14 Bochum II 34 9 12 13 39
15 SV Rodinghausen 34 7 8 19 29
16 Wiedenbrück 34 7 8 19 29
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 5 11 18 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schalke 04 II 34 77 50 +27 61
2 Fortuna Köln 34 71 30 +41 70
3 Borussia Dortmund II 34 66 50 +16 58
4 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 62 43 +19 54
5 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 61 46 +15 58
6 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 60 40 +20 66
7 FC Gutersloh 34 55 40 +15 59
8 Köln II 34 55 63 -8 45
9 Paderborn II 34 52 38 +14 46
10 Bochum II 34 50 62 -12 39
11 FC Bocholt 34 49 57 -8 39
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 47 58 -11 40
13 SV Rodinghausen 34 46 63 -17 29
14 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 45 55 -10 45
15 Wiedenbrück 34 39 65 -26 29
16 Bonner SC 34 38 42 -4 46
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 36 70 -34 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 35 72 -37 25
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions