Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Köln II vs Schalke 04 II

Prediction Audit: Köln II vs Schalke 04 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Köln II Köln II
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Schalke 04 II Schalke 04 II

The model missed the final outcome (Schalke 04 II win 1–5).

The model had projected Köln II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Köln II Schalke 04 II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Schalke 04 II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Schalke 04 II -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Köln II 41.8% 35.4% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.6% +1.1 pp Aligned
Schalke 04 II 32.6% 40.0% -7.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Schalke 04 II's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Schalke 04 II win 1–5.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Schalke 04 II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Köln II; match finished Schalke 04 II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Köln II by 7.5 percentage points (49.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Köln II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Schalke 04 II 32.6%
    • xG · Köln II 1.45 — Schalke 04 II 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Köln II 2.51 · Draw 3.62 · Schalke 04 II 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Köln II 35.4% · Draw 24.6% · Schalke 04 II 40.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Köln II 2.51 · Draw 3.62 · Schalke 04 II 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Köln II 35.4% · Draw 24.6% · Schalke 04 II 40.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Schalke 04 II win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 15:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6526332

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Schalke 04 II win · Köln II 1–5 Schalke 04 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Köln II vs Schalke 04 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Köln II 1.45 — Schalke 04 II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.2% · No 30.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.2% · No 30.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fortuna Köln 34 20 10 4 70
2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 19 9 6 66
3 Schalke 04 II 34 18 7 9 61
4 FC Gutersloh 34 16 11 7 59
5 Borussia Dortmund II 34 16 10 8 58
6 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 17 7 10 58
7 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 14 13 8 54
8 Paderborn II 34 12 10 12 46
9 Bonner SC 34 12 10 12 46
10 Köln II 34 13 6 15 45
11 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 11 12 11 45
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 11 7 16 40
13 FC Bocholt 34 10 9 15 39
14 Bochum II 34 9 12 13 39
15 SV Rodinghausen 34 7 8 19 29
16 Wiedenbrück 34 7 8 19 29
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 5 11 18 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schalke 04 II 34 77 50 +27 61
2 Fortuna Köln 34 71 30 +41 70
3 Borussia Dortmund II 34 66 50 +16 58
4 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 62 43 +19 54
5 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 61 46 +15 58
6 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 60 40 +20 66
7 FC Gutersloh 34 55 40 +15 59
8 Köln II 34 55 63 -8 45
9 Paderborn II 34 52 38 +14 46
10 Bochum II 34 50 62 -12 39
11 FC Bocholt 34 49 57 -8 39
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 47 58 -11 40
13 SV Rodinghausen 34 46 63 -17 29
14 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 45 55 -10 45
15 Wiedenbrück 34 39 65 -26 29
16 Bonner SC 34 38 42 -4 46
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 36 70 -34 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 35 72 -37 25
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions