Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / SV Rodinghausen vs Wiedenbrück

Prediction Audit: SV Rodinghausen vs Wiedenbrück Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Rodinghausen SV Rodinghausen
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück

The model missed the final outcome (Wiedenbrück win 0–1).

The model had projected SV Rodinghausen at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SV Rodinghausen Wiedenbrück ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SV Rodinghausen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SV Rodinghausen -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Rodinghausen 41.8% 59.9% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.6% +4.0 pp Aligned
Wiedenbrück 32.6% 18.4% +14.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates SV Rodinghausen's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wiedenbrück win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SV Rodinghausen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SV Rodinghausen; match finished Wiedenbrück
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SV Rodinghausen by 18.2 percentage points (60.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wiedenbrück 32.6%
    • xG · SV Rodinghausen 1.45 — Wiedenbrück 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Rodinghausen 1.53 · Draw 4.24 · Wiedenbrück 4.97
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 59.9% · Draw 21.6% · Wiedenbrück 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Rodinghausen 1.53 · Draw 4.24 · Wiedenbrück 4.97
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 59.9% · Draw 21.6% · Wiedenbrück 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wiedenbrück win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3003042

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wiedenbrück win · SV Rodinghausen 0–1 Wiedenbrück
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: SV Rodinghausen vs Wiedenbrück
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Rodinghausen 1.45 — Wiedenbrück 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.0% · Over 2.5 62.0%); BTTS No (Yes 45.1% · No 54.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.1% · No 54.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fortuna Köln 34 20 10 4 70
2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 19 9 6 66
3 Schalke 04 II 34 18 7 9 61
4 FC Gutersloh 34 16 11 7 59
5 Borussia Dortmund II 34 16 10 8 58
6 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 17 7 10 58
7 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 14 13 8 54
8 Paderborn II 34 12 10 12 46
9 Bonner SC 34 12 10 12 46
10 Köln II 34 13 6 15 45
11 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 11 12 11 45
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 11 7 16 40
13 FC Bocholt 34 10 9 15 39
14 Bochum II 34 9 12 13 39
15 SV Rodinghausen 34 7 8 19 29
16 Wiedenbrück 34 7 8 19 29
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 5 11 18 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schalke 04 II 34 77 50 +27 61
2 Fortuna Köln 34 71 30 +41 70
3 Borussia Dortmund II 34 66 50 +16 58
4 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 62 43 +19 54
5 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 61 46 +15 58
6 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 60 40 +20 66
7 FC Gutersloh 34 55 40 +15 59
8 Köln II 34 55 63 -8 45
9 Paderborn II 34 52 38 +14 46
10 Bochum II 34 50 62 -12 39
11 FC Bocholt 34 49 57 -8 39
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 47 58 -11 40
13 SV Rodinghausen 34 46 63 -17 29
14 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 45 55 -10 45
15 Wiedenbrück 34 39 65 -26 29
16 Bonner SC 34 38 42 -4 46
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 36 70 -34 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 35 72 -37 25
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions