Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia M'gladbach II

Prediction Audit: Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia M'gladbach II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rot-weiss Oberhausen Rot-weiss Oberhausen
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Borussia M'gladbach II Borussia M'gladbach II

AI correctly predicted the Rot-weiss Oberhausen win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen Rot-weiss Oberhausen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rot-weiss Oberhausen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rot-weiss Oberhausen -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 41.8% 54.1% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.0% +2.7 pp Aligned
Borussia M'gladbach II 32.6% 23.0% +9.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Rot-weiss Oberhausen's win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rot-weiss Oberhausen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rot-weiss Oberhausen higher (54.1% vs model 41.8%, 12.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Borussia M'gladbach II 32.6%
    • xG · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.45 — Borussia M'gladbach II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.69 · Draw 3.98 · Borussia M'gladbach II 3.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 54.1% · Draw 23.0% · Borussia M'gladbach II 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.69 · Draw 3.98 · Borussia M'gladbach II 3.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 54.1% · Draw 23.0% · Borussia M'gladbach II 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rot-weiss Oberhausen win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 38/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 18:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3066143

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rot-weiss Oberhausen win · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–0 Borussia M'gladbach II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia M'gladbach II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.45 — Borussia M'gladbach II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 76.5% · Implied: 63.1% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +10.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 76.5% · No 23.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fortuna Köln 34 20 10 4 70
2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 19 9 6 66
3 Schalke 04 II 34 18 7 9 61
4 FC Gutersloh 34 16 11 7 59
5 Borussia Dortmund II 34 16 10 8 58
6 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 17 7 10 58
7 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 14 13 8 54
8 Paderborn II 34 12 10 12 46
9 Bonner SC 34 12 10 12 46
10 Köln II 34 13 6 15 45
11 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 11 12 11 45
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 11 7 16 40
13 FC Bocholt 34 10 9 15 39
14 Bochum II 34 9 12 13 39
15 SV Rodinghausen 34 7 8 19 29
16 Wiedenbrück 34 7 8 19 29
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 5 11 18 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schalke 04 II 34 77 50 +27 61
2 Fortuna Köln 34 71 30 +41 70
3 Borussia Dortmund II 34 66 50 +16 58
4 Sportfreunde Siegen 34 62 43 +19 54
5 Borussia M'gladbach II 34 61 46 +15 58
6 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 34 60 40 +20 66
7 FC Gutersloh 34 55 40 +15 59
8 Köln II 34 55 63 -8 45
9 Paderborn II 34 52 38 +14 46
10 Bochum II 34 50 62 -12 39
11 FC Bocholt 34 49 57 -8 39
12 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 34 47 58 -11 40
13 SV Rodinghausen 34 46 63 -17 29
14 Sportfreunde Lotte 34 45 55 -10 45
15 Wiedenbrück 34 39 65 -26 29
16 Bonner SC 34 38 42 -4 46
17 Wuppertaler SV 34 36 70 -34 26
18 SSVg Velbert 34 35 72 -37 25
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions