Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bayern Nord / Coburg vs ASV Neumarkt

Prediction Audit: Coburg vs ASV Neumarkt Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Coburg Coburg
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
ASV Neumarkt ASV Neumarkt

The model missed the final outcome (ASV Neumarkt win 2–4).

The model had projected Coburg at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Coburg ASV Neumarkt ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Coburg; match finished ASV Neumarkt

Market lesson

The full-time result was ASV Neumarkt win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Coburg 1.45 — ASV Neumarkt 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result ASV Neumarkt win · 2–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 20:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3314012

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ASV Neumarkt win · Coburg 2–4 ASV Neumarkt
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Bayern Nord
  • Fixture: Coburg vs ASV Neumarkt
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Coburg 1.45 — ASV Neumarkt 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.7% · Over 2.5 72.3%); BTTS No (Yes 49.9% · No 50.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.9% · No 50.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Oberliga - Bayern Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eltersdorf 32 21 2 9 65
2 Cham 33 18 8 7 62
3 ASV Neumarkt 32 18 5 9 59
4 Gebenbach 32 16 5 11 53
5 Eintracht Bamberg 32 13 12 7 51
6 Weiden 32 13 11 8 50
7 Ingolstadt II 32 13 7 12 46
8 Fortuna Regensburg 32 12 9 11 45
9 Jahn Regensburg II 32 13 5 14 44
10 Bayern Hof 32 11 10 11 43
11 Neudrossenfeld 32 12 6 14 42
12 Kornburg 32 9 13 10 40
13 Würzburger FV 32 10 7 15 37
14 ATSV Erlangen 33 10 7 16 37
15 Stadeln 32 11 2 19 35
16 Coburg 32 9 3 20 30
17 Großschwarzenlohe 32 4 8 20 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ASV Neumarkt 32 68 50 +18 59
2 Fortuna Regensburg 32 66 58 +8 45
3 Ingolstadt II 32 63 54 +9 46
4 Cham 33 62 35 +27 62
5 Jahn Regensburg II 32 59 53 +6 44
6 Weiden 32 57 39 +18 50
7 Bayern Hof 32 56 51 +5 43
8 Eltersdorf 32 55 30 +25 65
9 Eintracht Bamberg 32 53 39 +14 51
10 Gebenbach 32 53 47 +6 53
11 Kornburg 32 48 49 -1 40
12 Neudrossenfeld 32 47 53 -6 42
13 Würzburger FV 32 46 62 -16 37
14 Coburg 32 44 81 -37 30
15 ATSV Erlangen 33 43 65 -22 37
16 Stadeln 32 42 65 -23 35
17 Großschwarzenlohe 32 35 66 -31 20
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany. Oberliga - Bayern Nord Predictions