Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bayern Nord / Jahn Regensburg II vs ATSV Erlangen

Prediction Audit: Jahn Regensburg II vs ATSV Erlangen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jahn Regensburg II Jahn Regensburg II
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
ATSV Erlangen ATSV Erlangen

AI correctly predicted the Jahn Regensburg II win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jahn Regensburg II Jahn Regensburg II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Jahn Regensburg II win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Jahn Regensburg II 1.45 — ATSV Erlangen 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Jahn Regensburg II win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 10:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3114542

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jahn Regensburg II win · Jahn Regensburg II 3–2 ATSV Erlangen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Bayern Nord
  • Fixture: Jahn Regensburg II vs ATSV Erlangen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Jahn Regensburg II 1.45 — ATSV Erlangen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Oberliga - Bayern Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eltersdorf 32 21 2 9 65
2 Cham 33 18 8 7 62
3 ASV Neumarkt 32 18 5 9 59
4 Gebenbach 32 16 5 11 53
5 Eintracht Bamberg 32 13 12 7 51
6 Weiden 32 13 11 8 50
7 Ingolstadt II 32 13 7 12 46
8 Fortuna Regensburg 32 12 9 11 45
9 Jahn Regensburg II 32 13 5 14 44
10 Bayern Hof 32 11 10 11 43
11 Neudrossenfeld 32 12 6 14 42
12 Kornburg 32 9 13 10 40
13 Würzburger FV 32 10 7 15 37
14 ATSV Erlangen 33 10 7 16 37
15 Stadeln 32 11 2 19 35
16 Coburg 32 9 3 20 30
17 Großschwarzenlohe 32 4 8 20 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ASV Neumarkt 32 68 50 +18 59
2 Fortuna Regensburg 32 66 58 +8 45
3 Ingolstadt II 32 63 54 +9 46
4 Cham 33 62 35 +27 62
5 Jahn Regensburg II 32 59 53 +6 44
6 Weiden 32 57 39 +18 50
7 Bayern Hof 32 56 51 +5 43
8 Eltersdorf 32 55 30 +25 65
9 Eintracht Bamberg 32 53 39 +14 51
10 Gebenbach 32 53 47 +6 53
11 Kornburg 32 48 49 -1 40
12 Neudrossenfeld 32 47 53 -6 42
13 Würzburger FV 32 46 62 -16 37
14 Coburg 32 44 81 -37 30
15 ATSV Erlangen 33 43 65 -22 37
16 Stadeln 32 42 65 -23 35
17 Großschwarzenlohe 32 35 66 -31 20
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany. Oberliga - Bayern Nord Predictions