Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Balingen vs FC Astoria Walldorf

Prediction Audit: Balingen vs FC Astoria Walldorf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Balingen Balingen
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
FC Astoria Walldorf FC Astoria Walldorf

The model missed the final outcome (FC Astoria Walldorf win 1–4).

The model had projected Balingen at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Balingen FC Astoria Walldorf ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Astoria Walldorf higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Astoria Walldorf -6.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Balingen 41.8% 38.4% +3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 22.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
FC Astoria Walldorf 32.6% 39.0% -6.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Astoria Walldorf's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Astoria Walldorf win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FC Astoria Walldorf. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Balingen; match finished FC Astoria Walldorf

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Balingen by 6.4 percentage points (48.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Balingen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC Astoria Walldorf 32.6%
    • xG · Balingen 1.45 — FC Astoria Walldorf 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Balingen 2.30 · Draw 3.91 · FC Astoria Walldorf 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Balingen 38.4% · Draw 22.6% · FC Astoria Walldorf 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Balingen 2.30 · Draw 3.91 · FC Astoria Walldorf 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Balingen 38.4% · Draw 22.6% · FC Astoria Walldorf 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Astoria Walldorf win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 21:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2901658

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Astoria Walldorf win · Balingen 1–4 FC Astoria Walldorf
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Balingen vs FC Astoria Walldorf
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Balingen 1.45 — FC Astoria Walldorf 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 54.6% · Implied: 30.8% · Probability edge: +23.8 pts · Est. EV: +72.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 68
2 SGV Freiberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 56
5 TSV Steinbach 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hessen Kassel 34 15 9 10 54
7 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 17 3 14 54
8 SV Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 54
9 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 14 11 9 53
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 13 10 11 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 48
12 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 43
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 7 6 21 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 86 43 +43 68
2 TSV Steinbach 34 78 58 +20 56
3 Freiburg II 34 74 73 +1 48
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 71 42 +29 56
5 SGV Freiberg 34 68 38 +30 62
6 FSV Frankfurt 34 64 48 +16 57
7 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 64 65 -1 47
8 Hessen Kassel 34 62 51 +11 54
9 Kickers Offenbach 34 57 58 -1 43
10 SV Sandhausen 34 53 56 -3 54
11 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 52 45 +7 53
12 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 51 44 +7 54
13 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 51 44 +7 49
14 Eintracht Trier 34 48 52 -4 47
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 45 74 -29 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 40 83 -43 25
17 Balingen 34 38 87 -49 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 34 75 -41 22
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions