Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Stuttgarter Kickers vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Prediction Audit: Stuttgarter Kickers vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stuttgarter Kickers Stuttgarter Kickers
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

AI correctly predicted the Stuttgarter Kickers win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stuttgarter Kickers Stuttgarter Kickers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Stuttgarter Kickers considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Stuttgarter Kickers +12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stuttgarter Kickers 41.8% 29.5% +12.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.1% -0.4 pp Aligned
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 32.6% 44.5% -11.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Stuttgarter Kickers's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.5%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Stuttgarter Kickers win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Stuttgarter Kickers.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stuttgarter Kickers more conservatively (29.5% vs model 41.8%, 12.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stuttgarter Kickers win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stuttgarter Kickers 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 32.6%
    • xG · Stuttgarter Kickers 1.45 — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stuttgarter Kickers 2.91 · Draw 3.29 · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Stuttgarter Kickers 29.5% · Draw 26.1% · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stuttgarter Kickers 2.91 · Draw 3.29 · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Stuttgarter Kickers 29.5% · Draw 26.1% · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stuttgarter Kickers win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1766667

Closing Odds 2.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stuttgarter Kickers win · Stuttgarter Kickers 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Stuttgarter Kickers vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Stuttgarter Kickers 1.45 — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 68.9% · Implied: 61.8% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.9% · No 31.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 68
2 SGV Freiberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 56
5 TSV Steinbach 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hessen Kassel 34 15 9 10 54
7 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 17 3 14 54
8 SV Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 54
9 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 14 11 9 53
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 13 10 11 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 48
12 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 43
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 7 6 21 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 86 43 +43 68
2 TSV Steinbach 34 78 58 +20 56
3 Freiburg II 34 74 73 +1 48
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 71 42 +29 56
5 SGV Freiberg 34 68 38 +30 62
6 FSV Frankfurt 34 64 48 +16 57
7 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 64 65 -1 47
8 Hessen Kassel 34 62 51 +11 54
9 Kickers Offenbach 34 57 58 -1 43
10 SV Sandhausen 34 53 56 -3 54
11 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 52 45 +7 53
12 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 51 44 +7 54
13 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 51 44 +7 49
14 Eintracht Trier 34 48 52 -4 47
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 45 74 -29 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 40 83 -43 25
17 Balingen 34 38 87 -49 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 34 75 -41 22
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions