Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II

Prediction Audit: FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FSV Mainz 05 II FSV Mainz 05 II
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Freiburg II Freiburg II

The model missed the final outcome (Freiburg II win 0–4).

The model had projected FSV Mainz 05 II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FSV Mainz 05 II Freiburg II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FSV Mainz 05 II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FSV Mainz 05 II -10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FSV Mainz 05 II 41.8% 51.9% -10.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.8% +3.9 pp Aligned
Freiburg II 32.6% 26.3% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FSV Mainz 05 II's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Freiburg II win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FSV Mainz 05 II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FSV Mainz 05 II by 10.1 percentage points (51.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Freiburg II 32.6%
    • xG · FSV Mainz 05 II 1.45 — Freiburg II 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FSV Mainz 05 II 1.71 · Draw 4.08 · Freiburg II 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 II 51.9% · Draw 21.8% · Freiburg II 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FSV Mainz 05 II 1.71 · Draw 4.08 · Freiburg II 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 II 51.9% · Draw 21.8% · Freiburg II 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Freiburg II win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1772984

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Freiburg II win · FSV Mainz 05 II 0–4 Freiburg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FSV Mainz 05 II 1.45 — Freiburg II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 31.2% · Implied: 27.5% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +17.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 76.9% · No 23.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 68
2 SGV Freiberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 56
5 TSV Steinbach 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hessen Kassel 34 15 9 10 54
7 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 17 3 14 54
8 SV Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 54
9 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 14 11 9 53
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 13 10 11 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 48
12 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 43
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 7 6 21 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 86 43 +43 68
2 TSV Steinbach 34 78 58 +20 56
3 Freiburg II 34 74 73 +1 48
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 71 42 +29 56
5 SGV Freiberg 34 68 38 +30 62
6 FSV Frankfurt 34 64 48 +16 57
7 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 64 65 -1 47
8 Hessen Kassel 34 62 51 +11 54
9 Kickers Offenbach 34 57 58 -1 43
10 SV Sandhausen 34 53 56 -3 54
11 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 52 45 +7 53
12 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 51 44 +7 54
13 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 51 44 +7 49
14 Eintracht Trier 34 48 52 -4 47
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 45 74 -29 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 40 83 -43 25
17 Balingen 34 38 87 -49 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 34 75 -41 22
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions