Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Bayern Alzenau vs SGV Freiberg

Prediction Audit: Bayern Alzenau vs SGV Freiberg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bayern Alzenau Bayern Alzenau
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Bayern Alzenau at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bayern Alzenau Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bayern Alzenau; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 3–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 03:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bayern Alzenau 1.45 — SGV Freiberg 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1461630

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bayern Alzenau 3–3 SGV Freiberg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Bayern Alzenau vs SGV Freiberg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bayern Alzenau 1.45 — SGV Freiberg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.0% · Over 2.5 62.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 68
2 SGV Freiberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 56
5 TSV Steinbach 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hessen Kassel 34 15 9 10 54
7 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 17 3 14 54
8 SV Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 54
9 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 14 11 9 53
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 13 10 11 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 48
12 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 43
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 7 6 21 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 86 43 +43 68
2 TSV Steinbach 34 78 58 +20 56
3 Freiburg II 34 74 73 +1 48
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 71 42 +29 56
5 SGV Freiberg 34 68 38 +30 62
6 FSV Frankfurt 34 64 48 +16 57
7 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 64 65 -1 47
8 Hessen Kassel 34 62 51 +11 54
9 Kickers Offenbach 34 57 58 -1 43
10 SV Sandhausen 34 53 56 -3 54
11 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 52 45 +7 53
12 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 51 44 +7 54
13 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 51 44 +7 49
14 Eintracht Trier 34 48 52 -4 47
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 45 74 -29 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 40 83 -43 25
17 Balingen 34 38 87 -49 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 34 75 -41 22
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions