Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 II

Prediction Audit: FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
FSV Mainz 05 II FSV Mainz 05 II

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · FSV Frankfurt 1.45 — FSV Mainz 05 II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1473330

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FSV Frankfurt 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): FSV Frankfurt 1.45 — FSV Mainz 05 II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 76.2% · No 23.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 76.2% · No 23.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 68
2 SGV Freiberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 56
5 TSV Steinbach 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hessen Kassel 34 15 9 10 54
7 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 17 3 14 54
8 SV Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 54
9 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 14 11 9 53
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 13 10 11 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 48
12 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 43
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 7 6 21 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 86 43 +43 68
2 TSV Steinbach 34 78 58 +20 56
3 Freiburg II 34 74 73 +1 48
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 71 42 +29 56
5 SGV Freiberg 34 68 38 +30 62
6 FSV Frankfurt 34 64 48 +16 57
7 FC Astoria Walldorf 34 64 65 -1 47
8 Hessen Kassel 34 62 51 +11 54
9 Kickers Offenbach 34 57 58 -1 43
10 SV Sandhausen 34 53 56 -3 54
11 FSV Mainz 05 II 34 52 45 +7 53
12 Stuttgarter Kickers 34 51 44 +7 54
13 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 34 51 44 +7 49
14 Eintracht Trier 34 48 52 -4 47
15 Bayern Alzenau 34 45 74 -29 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 40 83 -43 25
17 Balingen 34 38 87 -49 25
18 Bahlinger SC 34 34 75 -41 22
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions