Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern / Ansbach vs Würzburger Kickers

Prediction Audit: Ansbach vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ansbach Ansbach
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Würzburger Kickers Würzburger Kickers

The model missed the final outcome (Würzburger Kickers win 1–4).

The model had projected Ansbach at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ansbach Würzburger Kickers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Würzburger Kickers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Würzburger Kickers -33.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ansbach 41.8% 14.8% +26.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 18.8% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Würzburger Kickers 32.6% 66.4% -33.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Würzburger Kickers's win probability at 66.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 33.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Würzburger Kickers win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ansbach; match finished Würzburger Kickers

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ansbach by 33.9 percentage points (75.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ansbach 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Würzburger Kickers 32.6%
    • xG · Ansbach 1.45 — Würzburger Kickers 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ansbach 5.96 · Draw 4.71 · Würzburger Kickers 1.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Ansbach 14.8% · Draw 18.8% · Würzburger Kickers 66.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ansbach 5.96 · Draw 4.71 · Würzburger Kickers 1.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Ansbach 14.8% · Draw 18.8% · Würzburger Kickers 66.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Würzburger Kickers win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3392019

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Würzburger Kickers win · Ansbach 1–4 Würzburger Kickers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ansbach; market prices Würzburger Kickers instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Ansbach 1.45 xG vs Würzburger Kickers 1.25 → Ansbach 41.8%
  • Market: Würzburger Kickers ~14.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 77.1% · No 22.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nürnberg II 34 24 5 5 77
2 Würzburger Kickers 34 22 9 3 75
3 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 22 4 8 70
4 Illertissen 34 19 7 8 64
5 Vilzing 34 15 6 13 51
6 Aubstadt 34 13 10 11 49
7 Eichstätt 34 12 12 10 48
8 Bayern München II 34 14 6 14 47
9 Wacker Burghausen 34 13 8 13 47
10 Ansbach 34 13 7 14 46
11 Buchbach 34 13 7 14 46
12 Memmingen 34 10 12 12 42
13 Bayreuth 34 9 11 14 38
14 Augsburg II 34 9 7 18 34
15 Schwaben Augsburg 34 9 7 18 34
16 Greuther Fürth II 34 6 10 18 28
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 6 8 20 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Würzburger Kickers 34 74 25 +49 75
2 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 72 30 +42 70
3 Illertissen 34 72 46 +26 64
4 Nürnberg II 34 68 35 +33 77
5 Bayern München II 34 61 52 +9 47
6 Ansbach 34 54 65 -11 46
7 Buchbach 34 54 69 -15 46
8 Vilzing 34 49 44 +5 51
9 Aubstadt 34 49 45 +4 49
10 Eichstätt 34 48 37 +11 48
11 Greuther Fürth II 34 47 60 -13 28
12 Wacker Burghausen 34 46 50 -4 47
13 Memmingen 34 43 47 -4 42
14 Schwaben Augsburg 34 39 60 -21 34
15 Augsburg II 34 37 48 -11 34
16 Bayreuth 34 36 53 -17 38
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 31 71 -40 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 31 74 -43 23
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