Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern / SpVgg Unterhaching vs Wacker Burghausen

Prediction Audit: SpVgg Unterhaching vs Wacker Burghausen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SpVgg Unterhaching SpVgg Unterhaching
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Wacker Burghausen Wacker Burghausen

AI correctly predicted the SpVgg Unterhaching win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SpVgg Unterhaching SpVgg Unterhaching ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SpVgg Unterhaching higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SpVgg Unterhaching -14.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SpVgg Unterhaching 41.8% 55.8% -14.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.4% +3.3 pp Aligned
Wacker Burghausen 32.6% 21.9% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates SpVgg Unterhaching's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SpVgg Unterhaching win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SpVgg Unterhaching than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SpVgg Unterhaching higher (55.8% vs model 41.8%, 14.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SpVgg Unterhaching win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SpVgg Unterhaching 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wacker Burghausen 32.6%
    • xG · SpVgg Unterhaching 1.45 — Wacker Burghausen 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SpVgg Unterhaching 1.59 · Draw 3.97 · Wacker Burghausen 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · SpVgg Unterhaching 55.8% · Draw 22.4% · Wacker Burghausen 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SpVgg Unterhaching 1.59 · Draw 3.97 · Wacker Burghausen 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · SpVgg Unterhaching 55.8% · Draw 22.4% · Wacker Burghausen 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SpVgg Unterhaching win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1493100

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SpVgg Unterhaching win · SpVgg Unterhaching 4–0 Wacker Burghausen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Bayern
  • Fixture: SpVgg Unterhaching vs Wacker Burghausen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SpVgg Unterhaching 1.45 — Wacker Burghausen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 35.4% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.9% · No 33.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nürnberg II 34 24 5 5 77
2 Würzburger Kickers 34 22 9 3 75
3 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 22 4 8 70
4 Illertissen 34 19 7 8 64
5 Vilzing 34 15 6 13 51
6 Aubstadt 34 13 10 11 49
7 Eichstätt 34 12 12 10 48
8 Bayern München II 34 14 6 14 47
9 Wacker Burghausen 34 13 8 13 47
10 Ansbach 34 13 7 14 46
11 Buchbach 34 13 7 14 46
12 Memmingen 34 10 12 12 42
13 Bayreuth 34 9 11 14 38
14 Augsburg II 34 9 7 18 34
15 Schwaben Augsburg 34 9 7 18 34
16 Greuther Fürth II 34 6 10 18 28
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 6 8 20 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Würzburger Kickers 34 74 25 +49 75
2 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 72 30 +42 70
3 Illertissen 34 72 46 +26 64
4 Nürnberg II 34 68 35 +33 77
5 Bayern München II 34 61 52 +9 47
6 Ansbach 34 54 65 -11 46
7 Buchbach 34 54 69 -15 46
8 Vilzing 34 49 44 +5 51
9 Aubstadt 34 49 45 +4 49
10 Eichstätt 34 48 37 +11 48
11 Greuther Fürth II 34 47 60 -13 28
12 Wacker Burghausen 34 46 50 -4 47
13 Memmingen 34 43 47 -4 42
14 Schwaben Augsburg 34 39 60 -21 34
15 Augsburg II 34 37 48 -11 34
16 Bayreuth 34 36 53 -17 38
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 31 71 -40 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 31 74 -43 23
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