Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern / Memmingen vs Vilzing

Prediction Audit: Memmingen vs Vilzing Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Memmingen Memmingen
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Vilzing Vilzing

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Memmingen considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Memmingen +7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Memmingen 41.8% 34.4% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 27.1% -1.4 pp Aligned
Vilzing 32.6% 38.5% -5.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Memmingen's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 1–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Memmingen.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Memmingen more conservatively (34.5% vs model 41.8%, 7.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Memmingen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Vilzing 32.6%
    • xG · Memmingen 1.45 — Vilzing 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Memmingen 2.66 · Draw 3.38 · Vilzing 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Memmingen 34.4% · Draw 27.1% · Vilzing 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Memmingen 2.66 · Draw 3.38 · Vilzing 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Memmingen 34.4% · Draw 27.1% · Vilzing 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 06:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1965622

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Memmingen 1–1 Vilzing
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Bayern
  • Fixture: Memmingen vs Vilzing
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Memmingen 1.45 — Vilzing 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 52.7% · Implied: 43.4% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.3% · No 52.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nürnberg II 34 24 5 5 77
2 Würzburger Kickers 34 22 9 3 75
3 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 22 4 8 70
4 Illertissen 34 19 7 8 64
5 Vilzing 34 15 6 13 51
6 Aubstadt 34 13 10 11 49
7 Eichstätt 34 12 12 10 48
8 Bayern München II 34 14 6 14 47
9 Wacker Burghausen 34 13 8 13 47
10 Ansbach 34 13 7 14 46
11 Buchbach 34 13 7 14 46
12 Memmingen 34 10 12 12 42
13 Bayreuth 34 9 11 14 38
14 Augsburg II 34 9 7 18 34
15 Schwaben Augsburg 34 9 7 18 34
16 Greuther Fürth II 34 6 10 18 28
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 6 8 20 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Würzburger Kickers 34 74 25 +49 75
2 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 72 30 +42 70
3 Illertissen 34 72 46 +26 64
4 Nürnberg II 34 68 35 +33 77
5 Bayern München II 34 61 52 +9 47
6 Ansbach 34 54 65 -11 46
7 Buchbach 34 54 69 -15 46
8 Vilzing 34 49 44 +5 51
9 Aubstadt 34 49 45 +4 49
10 Eichstätt 34 48 37 +11 48
11 Greuther Fürth II 34 47 60 -13 28
12 Wacker Burghausen 34 46 50 -4 47
13 Memmingen 34 43 47 -4 42
14 Schwaben Augsburg 34 39 60 -21 34
15 Augsburg II 34 37 48 -11 34
16 Bayreuth 34 36 53 -17 38
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 31 71 -40 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 31 74 -43 23
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern Predictions