Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern / Buchbach vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Prediction Audit: Buchbach vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Buchbach Buchbach
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
6 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 18%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg Viktoria Aschaffenburg

The model missed the final outcome (Buchbach win 6–3).

The model had projected Buchbach at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Buchbach ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Viktoria Aschaffenburg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Viktoria Aschaffenburg -10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Buchbach 41.8% 31.6% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.6% +0.0 pp Aligned
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 32.6% 42.8% -10.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Viktoria Aschaffenburg's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Buchbach win 6–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Viktoria Aschaffenburg than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 9 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Buchbach

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Buchbach by 10.2 percentage points (52.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Buchbach 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 32.6%
    • xG · Buchbach 1.45 — Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Buchbach 2.90 · Draw 3.57 · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Buchbach 31.6% · Draw 25.6% · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 42.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Buchbach 2.90 · Draw 3.57 · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Buchbach 31.6% · Draw 25.6% · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 42.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Buchbach win · 6–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604512

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Buchbach win · Buchbach 6–3 Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Bayern
  • Fixture: Buchbach vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Buchbach 1.45 — Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 58.5% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +34.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.5% · No 58.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nürnberg II 34 24 5 5 77
2 Würzburger Kickers 34 22 9 3 75
3 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 22 4 8 70
4 Illertissen 34 19 7 8 64
5 Vilzing 34 15 6 13 51
6 Aubstadt 34 13 10 11 49
7 Eichstätt 34 12 12 10 48
8 Bayern München II 34 14 6 14 47
9 Wacker Burghausen 34 13 8 13 47
10 Ansbach 34 13 7 14 46
11 Buchbach 34 13 7 14 46
12 Memmingen 34 10 12 12 42
13 Bayreuth 34 9 11 14 38
14 Augsburg II 34 9 7 18 34
15 Schwaben Augsburg 34 9 7 18 34
16 Greuther Fürth II 34 6 10 18 28
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 6 8 20 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Würzburger Kickers 34 74 25 +49 75
2 SpVgg Unterhaching 34 72 30 +42 70
3 Illertissen 34 72 46 +26 64
4 Nürnberg II 34 68 35 +33 77
5 Bayern München II 34 61 52 +9 47
6 Ansbach 34 54 65 -11 46
7 Buchbach 34 54 69 -15 46
8 Vilzing 34 49 44 +5 51
9 Aubstadt 34 49 45 +4 49
10 Eichstätt 34 48 37 +11 48
11 Greuther Fürth II 34 47 60 -13 28
12 Wacker Burghausen 34 46 50 -4 47
13 Memmingen 34 43 47 -4 42
14 Schwaben Augsburg 34 39 60 -21 34
15 Augsburg II 34 37 48 -11 34
16 Bayreuth 34 36 53 -17 38
17 Viktoria Aschaffenburg 34 31 71 -40 26
18 Hankofen-Hailing 34 31 74 -43 23
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