Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / VfB Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg

Prediction Audit: VfB Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

VfB Lübeck VfB Lübeck
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg

The model missed the final outcome (Weiche Flensburg win 0–1).

The model had projected VfB Lübeck at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 VfB Lübeck Weiche Flensburg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices VfB Lübeck higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: VfB Lübeck -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
VfB Lübeck 41.8% 47.5% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.7% +2.0 pp Aligned
Weiche Flensburg 32.6% 28.8% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates VfB Lübeck's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Weiche Flensburg win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on VfB Lübeck. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on VfB Lübeck by 5.7 percentage points (47.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · VfB Lübeck 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Weiche Flensburg 32.6%
    • xG · VfB Lübeck 1.45 — Weiche Flensburg 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · VfB Lübeck 1.87 · Draw 3.75 · Weiche Flensburg 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · VfB Lübeck 47.5% · Draw 23.7% · Weiche Flensburg 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · VfB Lübeck 1.87 · Draw 3.75 · Weiche Flensburg 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · VfB Lübeck 47.5% · Draw 23.7% · Weiche Flensburg 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Weiche Flensburg win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1882266

Closing Odds 1.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Weiche Flensburg win · VfB Lübeck 0–1 Weiche Flensburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: VfB Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): VfB Lübeck 1.45 — Weiche Flensburg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 71.5% · Implied: 64.7% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 26 5 3 83
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 22 4 8 70
3 VfB Oldenburg 34 21 6 7 69
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 19 7 8 64
5 Phönix Lübeck 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hannover 96 II 34 16 5 13 53
7 Bremer SV 34 14 10 10 52
8 Weiche Flensburg 34 14 7 13 49
9 Kickers Emden 34 14 9 11 51
10 Hamburger SV II 34 13 8 13 47
11 VfB Lübeck 34 12 9 13 45
12 Werder Bremen II 34 10 10 14 40
13 HSC Hannover 34 10 7 17 37
14 Schöningen 34 10 4 20 34
15 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 7 9 18 30
16 St. Pauli II 34 4 13 17 25
17 BW Lohne 34 5 8 21 23
18 Altona 93 34 6 5 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 103 35 +68 83
2 VfB Oldenburg 34 87 45 +42 69
3 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 83 48 +35 70
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 81 50 +31 64
5 Weiche Flensburg 34 69 63 +6 49
6 Kickers Emden 34 64 54 +10 51
7 Hannover 96 II 34 63 49 +14 53
8 Hamburger SV II 34 57 50 +7 47
9 Werder Bremen II 34 57 71 -14 40
10 Schöningen 34 56 84 -28 34
11 VfB Lübeck 34 54 61 -7 45
12 Phönix Lübeck 34 53 43 +10 56
13 Bremer SV 34 52 41 +11 52
14 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 51 79 -28 30
15 HSC Hannover 34 49 84 -35 37
16 Altona 93 34 44 92 -48 23
17 St. Pauli II 34 38 72 -34 25
18 BW Lohne 34 38 78 -40 23
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions