Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Hamburger SV II vs BW Lohne

Prediction Audit: Hamburger SV II vs BW Lohne Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hamburger SV II Hamburger SV II
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
BW Lohne BW Lohne

AI correctly predicted the Hamburger SV II win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hamburger SV II Hamburger SV II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hamburger SV II -3.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hamburger SV II 41.8% 45.0% -3.2 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 23.4% +2.3 pp Aligned
BW Lohne 32.6% 31.6% +1.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hamburger SV II win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Hamburger SV II win 5–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · BW Lohne 32.6%
    • xG · Hamburger SV II 1.45 — BW Lohne 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV II 1.93 · Draw 3.71 · BW Lohne 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 45.0% · Draw 23.4% · BW Lohne 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV II 1.93 · Draw 3.71 · BW Lohne 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 45.0% · Draw 23.4% · BW Lohne 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hamburger SV II win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1773194

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hamburger SV II win · Hamburger SV II 5–1 BW Lohne
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: Hamburger SV II vs BW Lohne
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Hamburger SV II 1.45 — BW Lohne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.6% · Implied: 35.5% · Probability edge: +20.1 pts · Est. EV: +47.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 26 5 3 83
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 22 4 8 70
3 VfB Oldenburg 34 21 6 7 69
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 19 7 8 64
5 Phönix Lübeck 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hannover 96 II 34 16 5 13 53
7 Bremer SV 34 14 10 10 52
8 Weiche Flensburg 34 14 7 13 49
9 Kickers Emden 34 14 9 11 51
10 Hamburger SV II 34 13 8 13 47
11 VfB Lübeck 34 12 9 13 45
12 Werder Bremen II 34 10 10 14 40
13 HSC Hannover 34 10 7 17 37
14 Schöningen 34 10 4 20 34
15 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 7 9 18 30
16 St. Pauli II 34 4 13 17 25
17 BW Lohne 34 5 8 21 23
18 Altona 93 34 6 5 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 103 35 +68 83
2 VfB Oldenburg 34 87 45 +42 69
3 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 83 48 +35 70
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 81 50 +31 64
5 Weiche Flensburg 34 69 63 +6 49
6 Kickers Emden 34 64 54 +10 51
7 Hannover 96 II 34 63 49 +14 53
8 Hamburger SV II 34 57 50 +7 47
9 Werder Bremen II 34 57 71 -14 40
10 Schöningen 34 56 84 -28 34
11 VfB Lübeck 34 54 61 -7 45
12 Phönix Lübeck 34 53 43 +10 56
13 Bremer SV 34 52 41 +11 52
14 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 51 79 -28 30
15 HSC Hannover 34 49 84 -35 37
16 Altona 93 34 44 92 -48 23
17 St. Pauli II 34 38 72 -34 25
18 BW Lohne 34 38 78 -40 23
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions