Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / BW Lohne vs Schöningen

Prediction Audit: BW Lohne vs Schöningen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

BW Lohne BW Lohne
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 23%
Schöningen Schöningen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected BW Lohne at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 BW Lohne Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates BW Lohne considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: BW Lohne +6.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
BW Lohne 41.8% 35.0% +6.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.3% -0.6 pp Aligned
Schöningen 32.6% 38.7% -6.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates BW Lohne's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.0%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 4–4.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on BW Lohne.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 8 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned BW Lohne; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on BW Lohne by 6.8 percentage points (35.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · BW Lohne 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Schöningen 32.6%
    • xG · BW Lohne 1.45 — Schöningen 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · BW Lohne 2.62 · Draw 3.49 · Schöningen 2.37
    • Implied 1X2 · BW Lohne 35.0% · Draw 26.3% · Schöningen 38.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · BW Lohne 2.62 · Draw 3.49 · Schöningen 2.37
    • Implied 1X2 · BW Lohne 35.0% · Draw 26.3% · Schöningen 38.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3563902

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · BW Lohne 4–4 Schöningen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: BW Lohne vs Schöningen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): BW Lohne 1.45 — Schöningen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.0% · Implied: 32.7% · Probability edge: +24.3 pts · Est. EV: +63.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.0% · No 57.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 26 5 3 83
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 22 4 8 70
3 VfB Oldenburg 34 21 6 7 69
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 19 7 8 64
5 Phönix Lübeck 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hannover 96 II 34 16 5 13 53
7 Bremer SV 34 14 10 10 52
8 Weiche Flensburg 34 14 7 13 49
9 Kickers Emden 34 14 9 11 51
10 Hamburger SV II 34 13 8 13 47
11 VfB Lübeck 34 12 9 13 45
12 Werder Bremen II 34 10 10 14 40
13 HSC Hannover 34 10 7 17 37
14 Schöningen 34 10 4 20 34
15 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 7 9 18 30
16 St. Pauli II 34 4 13 17 25
17 BW Lohne 34 5 8 21 23
18 Altona 93 34 6 5 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 103 35 +68 83
2 VfB Oldenburg 34 87 45 +42 69
3 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 83 48 +35 70
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 81 50 +31 64
5 Weiche Flensburg 34 69 63 +6 49
6 Kickers Emden 34 64 54 +10 51
7 Hannover 96 II 34 63 49 +14 53
8 Hamburger SV II 34 57 50 +7 47
9 Werder Bremen II 34 57 71 -14 40
10 Schöningen 34 56 84 -28 34
11 VfB Lübeck 34 54 61 -7 45
12 Phönix Lübeck 34 53 43 +10 56
13 Bremer SV 34 52 41 +11 52
14 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 51 79 -28 30
15 HSC Hannover 34 49 84 -35 37
16 Altona 93 34 44 92 -48 23
17 St. Pauli II 34 38 72 -34 25
18 BW Lohne 34 38 78 -40 23
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions