Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Kickers Emden vs VfB Lübeck

Prediction Audit: Kickers Emden vs VfB Lübeck Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kickers Emden Kickers Emden
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
VfB Lübeck VfB Lübeck

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Kickers Emden at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kickers Emden Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kickers Emden higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kickers Emden -14.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kickers Emden 41.8% 56.1% -14.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.4% +3.2 pp Aligned
VfB Lübeck 32.6% 21.4% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kickers Emden's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kickers Emden than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kickers Emden; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kickers Emden by 14.4 percentage points (56.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kickers Emden 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · VfB Lübeck 32.6%
    • xG · Kickers Emden 1.45 — VfB Lübeck 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kickers Emden 1.63 · Draw 4.08 · VfB Lübeck 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Kickers Emden 56.1% · Draw 22.4% · VfB Lübeck 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kickers Emden 1.63 · Draw 4.08 · VfB Lübeck 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Kickers Emden 56.1% · Draw 22.4% · VfB Lübeck 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3450349

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kickers Emden 1–1 VfB Lübeck
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: Kickers Emden vs VfB Lübeck
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kickers Emden 1.45 — VfB Lübeck 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.6% · No 31.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.6% · No 31.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Regionalliga - Nord Matches Track Kickers Emden Next Match Prediction Track VfB Lübeck Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kickers Emden & VfB Lübeck!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 26 5 3 83
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 22 4 8 70
3 VfB Oldenburg 34 21 6 7 69
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 19 7 8 64
5 Phönix Lübeck 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hannover 96 II 34 16 5 13 53
7 Bremer SV 34 14 10 10 52
8 Weiche Flensburg 34 14 7 13 49
9 Kickers Emden 34 14 9 11 51
10 Hamburger SV II 34 13 8 13 47
11 VfB Lübeck 34 12 9 13 45
12 Werder Bremen II 34 10 10 14 40
13 HSC Hannover 34 10 7 17 37
14 Schöningen 34 10 4 20 34
15 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 7 9 18 30
16 St. Pauli II 34 4 13 17 25
17 BW Lohne 34 5 8 21 23
18 Altona 93 34 6 5 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 103 35 +68 83
2 VfB Oldenburg 34 87 45 +42 69
3 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 83 48 +35 70
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 81 50 +31 64
5 Weiche Flensburg 34 69 63 +6 49
6 Kickers Emden 34 64 54 +10 51
7 Hannover 96 II 34 63 49 +14 53
8 Hamburger SV II 34 57 50 +7 47
9 Werder Bremen II 34 57 71 -14 40
10 Schöningen 34 56 84 -28 34
11 VfB Lübeck 34 54 61 -7 45
12 Phönix Lübeck 34 53 43 +10 56
13 Bremer SV 34 52 41 +11 52
14 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 51 79 -28 30
15 HSC Hannover 34 49 84 -35 37
16 Altona 93 34 44 92 -48 23
17 St. Pauli II 34 38 72 -34 25
18 BW Lohne 34 38 78 -40 23
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions