Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Hamburger SV II vs Phönix Lübeck

Prediction Audit: Hamburger SV II vs Phönix Lübeck Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hamburger SV II Hamburger SV II
May 03, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck

The model missed the final outcome (Phönix Lübeck win 0–1).

The model had projected Hamburger SV II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hamburger SV II Phönix Lübeck ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hamburger SV II -4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hamburger SV II 41.8% 46.2% -4.4 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 22.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Phönix Lübeck 32.6% 31.3% +1.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Phönix Lübeck win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Phönix Lübeck win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Phönix Lübeck 32.6%
    • xG · Hamburger SV II 1.45 — Phönix Lübeck 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV II 1.95 · Draw 4.00 · Phönix Lübeck 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 46.2% · Draw 22.5% · Phönix Lübeck 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV II 1.95 · Draw 4.00 · Phönix Lübeck 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV II 46.2% · Draw 22.5% · Phönix Lübeck 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 03, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Phönix Lübeck win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2632953

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Phönix Lübeck win · Hamburger SV II 0–1 Phönix Lübeck
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 26 5 3 83
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 22 4 8 70
3 VfB Oldenburg 34 21 6 7 69
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 19 7 8 64
5 Phönix Lübeck 34 16 8 10 56
6 Hannover 96 II 34 16 5 13 53
7 Bremer SV 34 14 10 10 52
8 Weiche Flensburg 34 14 7 13 49
9 Kickers Emden 34 14 9 11 51
10 Hamburger SV II 34 13 8 13 47
11 VfB Lübeck 34 12 9 13 45
12 Werder Bremen II 34 10 10 14 40
13 HSC Hannover 34 10 7 17 37
14 Schöningen 34 10 4 20 34
15 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 7 9 18 30
16 St. Pauli II 34 4 13 17 25
17 BW Lohne 34 5 8 21 23
18 Altona 93 34 6 5 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Meppen 34 103 35 +68 83
2 VfB Oldenburg 34 87 45 +42 69
3 SV Drochtersen/Assel 34 83 48 +35 70
4 SSV Jeddeloh 34 81 50 +31 64
5 Weiche Flensburg 34 69 63 +6 49
6 Kickers Emden 34 64 54 +10 51
7 Hannover 96 II 34 63 49 +14 53
8 Hamburger SV II 34 57 50 +7 47
9 Werder Bremen II 34 57 71 -14 40
10 Schöningen 34 56 84 -28 34
11 VfB Lübeck 34 54 61 -7 45
12 Phönix Lübeck 34 53 43 +10 56
13 Bremer SV 34 52 41 +11 52
14 Eintracht Norderstedt 34 51 79 -28 30
15 HSC Hannover 34 49 84 -35 37
16 Altona 93 34 44 92 -48 23
17 St. Pauli II 34 38 72 -34 25
18 BW Lohne 34 38 78 -40 23
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions