Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Hessen / TuBa Pohlheim vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf

Prediction Audit: TuBa Pohlheim vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TuBa Pohlheim TuBa Pohlheim
May 30, 2026 - 12:30
5 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 18%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf Rot-Weiß Walldorf

AI correctly predicted the TuBa Pohlheim win.

The match finished 5–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TuBa Pohlheim TuBa Pohlheim ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3 5-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (TuBa Pohlheim win 5–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · TuBa Pohlheim 1.45 — Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result TuBa Pohlheim win · 5–4
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3454570

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result TuBa Pohlheim win · TuBa Pohlheim 5–4 Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Hessen
  • Fixture: TuBa Pohlheim vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): TuBa Pohlheim 1.45 — Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 19.1% · Over 2.5 80.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 74.0% · No 26.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 74.0% · No 26.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Hessen Oberliga - Hessen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eintracht Frankfurt II 34 29 3 2 90
2 Eddersheim 34 19 7 8 64
3 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 34 16 11 7 59
4 FC Gießen 34 18 4 12 57
5 Baunatal 34 16 8 10 55
6 TuBa Pohlheim 34 15 9 10 54
7 Friedberg 34 14 7 13 49
8 Hünfelder SV 34 15 3 16 48
9 1960 Hanau 34 14 5 15 47
10 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 34 13 8 13 47
11 Darmstadt 98 II 34 13 6 15 45
12 Vfb Marburg 34 13 6 15 45
13 Hummetroth 34 13 5 16 41
14 Fernwald 34 11 9 14 42
15 Kassel 34 10 9 15 39
16 Waldgirmes 34 9 6 19 33
17 Weidenhausen 34 5 7 22 22
18 Hanau 93 34 3 7 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eintracht Frankfurt II 34 100 34 +66 90
2 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 34 90 76 +14 47
3 Eddersheim 34 75 50 +25 64
4 Darmstadt 98 II 34 75 69 +6 45
5 FC Gießen 34 74 57 +17 57
6 TuBa Pohlheim 34 74 62 +12 54
7 Hünfelder SV 34 68 64 +4 48
8 Baunatal 34 64 52 +12 55
9 Hummetroth 34 64 64 0 41
10 Kassel 34 63 82 -19 39
11 Fernwald 34 59 54 +5 42
12 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 34 57 42 +15 59
13 Friedberg 34 57 59 -2 49
14 1960 Hanau 34 49 66 -17 47
15 Vfb Marburg 34 47 58 -11 45
16 Waldgirmes 34 47 69 -22 33
17 Weidenhausen 34 43 92 -49 22
18 Hanau 93 34 35 92 -57 15
Oberliga - Hessen Germany. Oberliga - Hessen Predictions