Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Nordost-Süd / SC Freital vs Auerbach

Prediction Audit: SC Freital vs Auerbach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Freital SC Freital
May 17, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Auerbach Auerbach

AI correctly predicted the SC Freital win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SC Freital SC Freital ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (SC Freital win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SC Freital 1.45 — Auerbach 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result SC Freital win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1547362

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SC Freital win · SC Freital 2–0 Auerbach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd
  • Fixture: SC Freital vs Auerbach
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SC Freital 1.45 — Auerbach 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.8% · No 30.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.8% · No 30.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Matches Track SC Freital Next Match Prediction Track Auerbach Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for SC Freital & Auerbach!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Oberliga - Nordost-Süd — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 RSV Eintracht 30 20 8 2 68
2 SC Freital 30 19 2 9 59
3 Plauen 30 18 5 7 59
4 Auerbach 30 14 9 7 51
5 Germania Halberstadt 30 14 6 10 48
6 VfL Halle 30 13 7 10 46
7 Budissa Bautzen 30 12 9 9 45
8 Krieschow 30 12 7 11 43
9 Union Sandersdorf 30 10 9 11 39
10 Empor Glauchau 29 10 7 12 37
11 Einheit Wernigerode 30 9 6 15 33
12 Einheit Rudolstadt 29 9 6 14 33
13 FC Lok Stendal 30 8 6 16 30
14 FC Grimma 30 8 4 18 28
15 Bischofswerdaer FV 30 6 7 17 25
16 Heiligenstadt 30 4 8 18 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 VfL Halle 30 68 45 +23 46
2 RSV Eintracht 30 61 29 +32 68
3 SC Freital 30 57 28 +29 59
4 Budissa Bautzen 30 57 46 +11 45
5 Plauen 30 52 28 +24 59
6 Auerbach 30 51 37 +14 51
7 Germania Halberstadt 30 49 44 +5 48
8 Krieschow 30 48 42 +6 43
9 FC Grimma 30 47 73 -26 28
10 Empor Glauchau 29 42 49 -7 37
11 Einheit Wernigerode 30 41 58 -17 33
12 FC Lok Stendal 30 41 59 -18 30
13 Union Sandersdorf 30 40 41 -1 39
14 Einheit Rudolstadt 29 36 56 -20 33
15 Bischofswerdaer FV 30 36 61 -25 25
16 Heiligenstadt 30 33 63 -30 20