Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Nordost-Nord / Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Tasmania Berlin

Prediction Audit: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Tasmania Berlin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eintracht Mahlsdorf Eintracht Mahlsdorf
May 30, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 24%
Tasmania Berlin Tasmania Berlin

The model missed the final outcome (Tasmania Berlin win 0–5).

The model had projected Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eintracht Mahlsdorf Tasmania Berlin ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 0-2, 2-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Eintracht Mahlsdorf; match finished Tasmania Berlin

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tasmania Berlin win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1.45 — Tasmania Berlin 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tasmania Berlin win · 0–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 18:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2239237

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tasmania Berlin win · Eintracht Mahlsdorf 0–5 Tasmania Berlin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord
  • Fixture: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Tasmania Berlin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1.45 — Tasmania Berlin 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Oberliga - Nordost-Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tasmania Berlin 30 22 1 7 67
2 Lichtenberg 30 19 4 7 61
3 Hansa Rostock II 30 18 3 9 57
4 Neustrelitz 30 16 5 9 53
5 Union Klosterfelde 30 15 7 8 52
6 Siedenbollentin 30 13 8 9 47
7 Eintracht Mahlsdorf 30 13 7 10 46
8 Makkabi 30 14 2 14 44
9 Anker Wismar 30 12 5 13 41
10 Sparta Lichtenberg 30 12 3 15 39
11 Optik Rathenow 30 9 10 11 37
12 Tennis Borussia 30 10 6 14 36
13 BAK '07 30 11 3 16 36
14 Dynamo Schwerin 30 7 10 13 31
15 Croatia Berlin 30 5 4 21 19
16 Viktoria Berlin 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tasmania Berlin 30 84 32 +52 67
2 Lichtenberg 30 77 45 +32 61
3 Sparta Lichtenberg 30 77 72 +5 39
4 Hansa Rostock II 30 66 49 +17 57
5 Neustrelitz 30 62 38 +24 53
6 Union Klosterfelde 30 59 43 +16 52
7 Siedenbollentin 30 59 58 +1 47
8 Makkabi 30 57 55 +2 44
9 Anker Wismar 30 56 55 +1 41
10 Eintracht Mahlsdorf 30 50 49 +1 46
11 BAK '07 30 50 66 -16 36
12 Tennis Borussia 30 44 58 -14 36
13 Viktoria Berlin 30 42 109 -67 13
14 Optik Rathenow 30 41 47 -6 37
15 Dynamo Schwerin 30 41 47 -6 31
16 Croatia Berlin 30 39 81 -42 19
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany. Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Predictions