Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg / VfR Aalen vs CFR Pforzheim

Prediction Audit: VfR Aalen vs CFR Pforzheim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

VfR Aalen VfR Aalen
May 16, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
CFR Pforzheim CFR Pforzheim

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected VfR Aalen at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 VfR Aalen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · VfR Aalen 1.45 — CFR Pforzheim 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549818

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · VfR Aalen 0–0 CFR Pforzheim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg
  • Fixture: VfR Aalen vs CFR Pforzheim
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): VfR Aalen 1.45 — CFR Pforzheim 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 81.0% · No 19.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 81.0% · No 19.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VfR Aalen 34 26 5 3 83
2 VfR Mannheim 34 20 9 5 69
3 FC Nöttingen 34 18 4 12 58
4 FV Ravensburg 34 16 9 9 57
5 Essingen 34 14 12 8 54
6 Oberachern 34 16 6 12 54
7 CFR Pforzheim 34 12 12 10 48
8 Reutlingen 34 12 11 11 47
9 FC 08 Villingen 34 12 11 11 47
10 Karlsruhe II 34 11 10 13 43
11 Backnang 34 12 7 16 42
12 TSV Singen 34 12 4 18 40
13 Normannia Gmünd 34 9 12 13 39
14 Türkspor Neckarsulm 34 11 6 17 39
15 Göppinger SV 34 9 9 16 36
16 Hollenbach 34 9 8 17 35
17 Bissingen 34 7 12 15 33
18 Denzlingen 34 5 4 25 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 VfR Aalen 34 87 24 +63 83
2 FC Nöttingen 34 82 61 +21 58
3 VfR Mannheim 34 81 34 +47 69
4 CFR Pforzheim 34 68 61 +7 48
5 FV Ravensburg 34 61 52 +9 57
6 Reutlingen 34 56 50 +6 47
7 Hollenbach 34 56 69 -13 35
8 FC 08 Villingen 34 55 56 -1 47
9 TSV Singen 34 55 81 -26 40
10 Essingen 34 54 58 -4 54
11 Karlsruhe II 34 54 61 -7 43
12 Oberachern 34 54 62 -8 54
13 Bissingen 34 54 81 -27 33
14 Normannia Gmünd 34 53 51 +2 39
15 Göppinger SV 34 53 53 0 36
16 Türkspor Neckarsulm 34 52 61 -9 39
17 Backnang 34 50 67 -17 42
18 Denzlingen 34 35 78 -43 19
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany. Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Predictions