Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein / SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg

Prediction Audit: SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC St. Tönis SC St. Tönis
May 10, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
SF Baumberg SF Baumberg

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected SC St. Tönis at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SC St. Tönis Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SC St. Tönis 1.45 — SF Baumberg 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 06:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1558449

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SC St. Tönis 0–0 SF Baumberg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Niederrhein
  • Fixture: SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): SC St. Tönis 1.45 — SF Baumberg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.9% · Over 2.5 73.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 80.9% · No 19.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 80.9% · No 19.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Niederrhein Oberliga - Niederrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hilden 34 22 3 9 69
2 Germania Ratingen 34 19 10 5 67
3 KFC Uerdingen 05 34 19 6 9 63
4 Schonnebeck 34 17 10 7 61
5 SC St. Tönis 34 16 7 11 55
6 Meerbusch 34 15 5 14 50
7 BW Dingden 34 12 9 13 45
8 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 34 11 11 12 44
9 SF Baumberg 34 12 8 14 44
10 SW Essen 34 13 5 16 44
11 Monheim 34 12 7 15 43
12 Sonsbeck 34 12 6 16 42
13 Büderich 34 12 6 15 42
14 Union Frintrop 34 12 5 17 41
15 Holzheimer SG 34 10 11 13 41
16 Kleve 34 11 8 15 41
17 Homberg 34 10 6 18 36
18 Biemenhorst 34 8 3 23 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hilden 34 90 48 +42 69
2 Germania Ratingen 34 86 48 +38 67
3 Schonnebeck 34 81 47 +34 61
4 SC St. Tönis 34 80 55 +25 55
5 Büderich 34 62 77 -15 42
6 KFC Uerdingen 05 34 58 43 +15 63
7 SF Baumberg 34 58 66 -8 44
8 Union Frintrop 34 57 57 0 41
9 Biemenhorst 34 55 106 -51 27
10 SW Essen 34 53 62 -9 44
11 Homberg 34 51 61 -10 36
12 Meerbusch 34 49 60 -11 50
13 Holzheimer SG 34 49 62 -13 41
14 Monheim 34 48 56 -8 43
15 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 34 47 42 +5 44
16 Sonsbeck 34 47 59 -12 42
17 BW Dingden 34 45 48 -3 45
18 Kleve 34 43 62 -19 41
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein Predictions